Is Joe Lieberman a Democrat?
Short answer: yes. Long answer: it's complicated. Lieberman has run with the Democratic party for the past 20 years as a Senator, a vice-presidential candidate, and a presidential candidate. According to his biography on his web site, "He remains committed to caucusing with Senate Democrats, but will be identified as an Independent Democrat (ID-CT)." Since his flagrant endorsement of Republican presidential candidate John McCain, Democrats have wondered where his true loyalties lie. If he was a Democrat, even an Independent Democrat, how could he justify campaigning for McCain? Regardless, since Lieberman considers himself a Democrat, and since a brief look at his voting record shows that he does vote in agreement with the Democrats (see voting record here), he is a Democrat, albeit an Independent one.
What should Senate Democrats do with him?
Even though I'm posting this after the caucus results, I'll admit that I do agree with their decision, but only because of the current Senate situation. As of today, the Senate Democrats have a Senate majority -- 58 seats -- only 2 short of the "magic 60" filibuster-proof majority. And, as such, every single seat counts. This article does an excellent job explaining why the Democrats voted as they did. A large part of it rested on Obama's appeal to the Senate Democrats to retain Lieberman's posts. But as the article states, "...Obama wasn't just acting out of bipartisan goodwill. In supporting Lieberman's continued inclusion in the caucus, Obama may have effectively defanged his toughest potential opponent in the Senate Democratic caucus. If Lieberman is anything, as he proved with McCain, he's loyal — and now he owes Obama a big one. For the first time in his long political career, his job over the next few years is to keep quiet." In short, the Democrats need him, and his Democratic leanings, to help pass each of Obama's planned legislation. And as this article demonstrates (when you get past the writer's obvious ant-Lieberman bias), Lieberman's single vote has proven crucial for much legislation. "Instead, I found that of 638, 110th-Congress votes through July 31, 2008, 36 of those came down to a tie or were decided by only one vote and, of those, Lieberman voted with the Democrats 31 times -- and on most of those 31, Democrats prevailed based on Lieberman's vote."
Lieberman, as a member of the party-in-government, owes his party his loyalty and his vote. Since he clearly abdicated his loyalty when he formally supported John McCain, he *must* vote with the Democrats in the Senate. As stated in Aldrich, page 23, "The parties-in-government are more than mere coalitions of like-minded individuals, however; they are enduring institutions...in the language of politics, parties may help achieve the goal of attaining policy majorities in the first place, as well as the often more difficult goal of maintaining such majorities." And, on page 195, "Legislation requires the formation of majorities on the floor in each chamber...political parties are one basis on which majorities can be formed, and they can provide long-term stability to such a majority. But these too can be defeated and majorities fashioned on other bases..." Clearly, the Democrats need to hold on to their majority in the Senate, because majorities are so difficult to form. Punishing Leiberman would've upset the majority balance, which would've proven detrimental in the long run.
I think the Senate Democrats, though many of them are still angry about letting Lieberman off with a mere 'slap on the wrist,' they'll not regret their decision in the long run.
When asked if he felt reprimanded, chagrined or punished, Lieberman responded with unwavering support for his fellow Democrats. "This is the beginning of a new chapter, and I know that my colleagues in the Senate Democratic caucus were moved not only by the kind words that Senator Reid said about my longtime record but by the appeal from President-elect Obama himself that the nation now unite to confront our very serious problems," said Lieberman, while admitting that he had uttered certain statements on the trail that he now regretted.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Can they recover?
Sure, it might seem at first glance that the Republican party is on its way out. Not only have they lost control of the House and Senate, they also lost by a landslide to a fairly liberal Democrat, and their former leader has the worst approval rating ever, even lower than Richard Nixon's during the Watergate scandal. Is there hope for the future of the GOP? Definitely, according to the history books.
To determine the future of any given political party, it helps to look at the history of party formation in this country. Even though the founding fathers denounced political parties, worrying that they would actually detract from the major issues, party formation was an inevitability. It became obvious that there needed to be opposing forces in government to resist tyranny. And since America has become a two-party system, with third parties trailing very far behind, there will always be a Democratic party and a Republican party. Political leaders began organizing supporters issue-by-issue, acknowledging that "they stood to benefit the most from organizing, and they surely recognized that they had the most to lose by failing to organize." (Aldrich 78) And I think herein lies the strategy for a Republican comeback.
Now we have to shed the historical context and look closely at the present situation. When looking at the reasons why Obama won, most point to his huge grassroots campaign. Even before Obama formally announced that he would run for president, a widespread, organized grassroots effort had begun, encouraging Obama to run in the first place. After he announced his candidacy, the effort spread even farther, effectively utilizing technology (via Facebook, text messaging etc.) to spread the word. McCain's campaign, and the whole Republican party in general, lacked this essential level of organization. In order to compete in future races, the Republican party will need to reach voters as effectively as Obama has. And they'll need to utilize the internet to the same extent. Right now, Obama's revolutionizing the way the people interact with their government, particularly through his website change.gov. And it doesn't stop there. This article does a great job of explaining just how much of an impact using technology will have on government.
The Republican party has a lot of work ahead of it. Over the next couple years, it will need to ascertain its core beliefs, rally its supporters, and embrace technology the same way the Democrats have. It'll be an uphill struggle, but the GOP is nothing if not determined.
To determine the future of any given political party, it helps to look at the history of party formation in this country. Even though the founding fathers denounced political parties, worrying that they would actually detract from the major issues, party formation was an inevitability. It became obvious that there needed to be opposing forces in government to resist tyranny. And since America has become a two-party system, with third parties trailing very far behind, there will always be a Democratic party and a Republican party. Political leaders began organizing supporters issue-by-issue, acknowledging that "they stood to benefit the most from organizing, and they surely recognized that they had the most to lose by failing to organize." (Aldrich 78) And I think herein lies the strategy for a Republican comeback.
Now we have to shed the historical context and look closely at the present situation. When looking at the reasons why Obama won, most point to his huge grassroots campaign. Even before Obama formally announced that he would run for president, a widespread, organized grassroots effort had begun, encouraging Obama to run in the first place. After he announced his candidacy, the effort spread even farther, effectively utilizing technology (via Facebook, text messaging etc.) to spread the word. McCain's campaign, and the whole Republican party in general, lacked this essential level of organization. In order to compete in future races, the Republican party will need to reach voters as effectively as Obama has. And they'll need to utilize the internet to the same extent. Right now, Obama's revolutionizing the way the people interact with their government, particularly through his website change.gov. And it doesn't stop there. This article does a great job of explaining just how much of an impact using technology will have on government.
The Republican party has a lot of work ahead of it. Over the next couple years, it will need to ascertain its core beliefs, rally its supporters, and embrace technology the same way the Democrats have. It'll be an uphill struggle, but the GOP is nothing if not determined.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Predictions and Electoral Mandate
First of all, congratulations to President-elect Obama! What an amazing, exciting election! I think this sums it up nicely.
Our group did really well predicting the results of this election. We were correct that Obama would win the presidency, and that the Democrats would maintain their majority in the House and Senate. Most of our state-level predictions were correct, too. We only flubbed on Indiana (which we thought would go Republican), Missouri (which we thought would go Democratic), and North Carolina (which we thought would go Republican). As far as the Senate race, we were only wrong on Maine (we predicted Democrat), North Carolina (we predicted Republican), and Virginia (we predicted Republican).
And does Obama have an electoral mandate? Almost! If I were to judge based solely on his performance last night and the number of electoral votes he received over McCain, I would definitely say yes. And considering the record number of voters that turned out, I think it's pretty clear that America really wants this change. But I'm leaving my answer at "almost" based on the Senate results. Even though the Democrats kept their majority, they did not reach the "magic 60" filibuster-proof majority that they wanted.
Our group did really well predicting the results of this election. We were correct that Obama would win the presidency, and that the Democrats would maintain their majority in the House and Senate. Most of our state-level predictions were correct, too. We only flubbed on Indiana (which we thought would go Republican), Missouri (which we thought would go Democratic), and North Carolina (which we thought would go Republican). As far as the Senate race, we were only wrong on Maine (we predicted Democrat), North Carolina (we predicted Republican), and Virginia (we predicted Republican).
And does Obama have an electoral mandate? Almost! If I were to judge based solely on his performance last night and the number of electoral votes he received over McCain, I would definitely say yes. And considering the record number of voters that turned out, I think it's pretty clear that America really wants this change. But I'm leaving my answer at "almost" based on the Senate results. Even though the Democrats kept their majority, they did not reach the "magic 60" filibuster-proof majority that they wanted.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
McCain's new strategy
"For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky or think this is all set," Obama said at a fundraiser at Manhattan's Metropolitan Club earlier this week, "I just have two words for you: New Hampshire."
Clearly, Obama acknowledges that this race is far from over. Despite the poll numbers in Obama's favor, the fundraising dollars he's acquired , and the fact that he won all three debates, there are still 2 weeks left that could change the course of the race. And with the right strategy, the McCain/Palin ticket could still pull ahead. As the readings explained, the Republicans hold a huge sway over white voters, southern voters (particularly southern women), religious voters, wealthy voters, and rural voters. It's important for McCain to understand this and focus his campaign to these influential groups of people.
To do this, McCain will have to dramatically change his own strategy. Thus far, he's had Palin do most of the dirty work in terms of reaching out to women and religious voters. Note this article, which shows Palin pandering to women voters while backed by former Clinton supporters, and this article transcripting a recent interview between Palin and a Christian leader. Because it's out of the question to replace Palin as his running mate, I think McCain really needs to take some of that responsibility into his own hands. He's spent so much time and energy on vicious attack ads that he hasn't painted a clear picture of his policy views. He needs to scale back the attacks, eliminate the robocalls, and instead hammer into the American people how he will change Washington with crystal clear plans and goals. And he needs to start reaching out to these voters himself, because when people go out to vote, they vote for the top of the ticket -- not the running mate. And if voters are turned off by McCain's constant attacks, I don't think Palin will be enough to sway their vote. Palin should stick to her rallies, which are drawing increasingly large crowds, and stay away from media interviews where she's failed miserably.
Clearly, Obama acknowledges that this race is far from over. Despite the poll numbers in Obama's favor, the fundraising dollars he's acquired , and the fact that he won all three debates, there are still 2 weeks left that could change the course of the race. And with the right strategy, the McCain/Palin ticket could still pull ahead. As the readings explained, the Republicans hold a huge sway over white voters, southern voters (particularly southern women), religious voters, wealthy voters, and rural voters. It's important for McCain to understand this and focus his campaign to these influential groups of people.
To do this, McCain will have to dramatically change his own strategy. Thus far, he's had Palin do most of the dirty work in terms of reaching out to women and religious voters. Note this article, which shows Palin pandering to women voters while backed by former Clinton supporters, and this article transcripting a recent interview between Palin and a Christian leader. Because it's out of the question to replace Palin as his running mate, I think McCain really needs to take some of that responsibility into his own hands. He's spent so much time and energy on vicious attack ads that he hasn't painted a clear picture of his policy views. He needs to scale back the attacks, eliminate the robocalls, and instead hammer into the American people how he will change Washington with crystal clear plans and goals. And he needs to start reaching out to these voters himself, because when people go out to vote, they vote for the top of the ticket -- not the running mate. And if voters are turned off by McCain's constant attacks, I don't think Palin will be enough to sway their vote. Palin should stick to her rallies, which are drawing increasingly large crowds, and stay away from media interviews where she's failed miserably.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Party Identification
Based on the exit polls for 2008, it's safe to state that demographics play a huge roll in party identification, voter turn-out, and which candidate people vote for. It does, in fact, determine voting behavior.
The reading from Hetherington and Keefe details a list of demographics and who certain groups of people are likely to vote for. The text states that "men were seven percentage points more Republican than women, and that women were nine points more Democratic than men," which the text backs up with voter turn-out for both the 2000 and 2004 elections. The text also states that "those who attend church at least once a week have become stalwarts of the Republican party; those who attend church less often or not at all are now disproportionally Democratic." The book then says that "nearly 60% of weekly churchgoers who were white identified themselves as Republicans." The readings also state that more educated people tended to vote Republican.
The exit polls:
In terms of gender, the exit polls showed that 58% of males and 42% of females voted Republican while the exact opposite was true of the Democrats. As for church goers, those who said they went to church "occasionally" or "never" voted Democrat (68%) while those who said they go regularly voted Republican. On the Republican exit poll, the issue of abortion came up. Of those who voted, 70% believed that abortion should be illegal -- a staunchly Republican view. On the Democratic poll, the issue of education came up. 58% had no college degree, while 42% were college graduates.
Conclusion:
The results from the 2008 exit polls solidly proves the text book's claims that demographics determine voting behavior, for the most part. Most women DID vote Democratic, most regular church-goers DID vote Republican, and those with a staunch view on abortion voted Republican as well.
The reading from Hetherington and Keefe details a list of demographics and who certain groups of people are likely to vote for. The text states that "men were seven percentage points more Republican than women, and that women were nine points more Democratic than men," which the text backs up with voter turn-out for both the 2000 and 2004 elections. The text also states that "those who attend church at least once a week have become stalwarts of the Republican party; those who attend church less often or not at all are now disproportionally Democratic." The book then says that "nearly 60% of weekly churchgoers who were white identified themselves as Republicans." The readings also state that more educated people tended to vote Republican.
The exit polls:
In terms of gender, the exit polls showed that 58% of males and 42% of females voted Republican while the exact opposite was true of the Democrats. As for church goers, those who said they went to church "occasionally" or "never" voted Democrat (68%) while those who said they go regularly voted Republican. On the Republican exit poll, the issue of abortion came up. Of those who voted, 70% believed that abortion should be illegal -- a staunchly Republican view. On the Democratic poll, the issue of education came up. 58% had no college degree, while 42% were college graduates.
Conclusion:
The results from the 2008 exit polls solidly proves the text book's claims that demographics determine voting behavior, for the most part. Most women DID vote Democratic, most regular church-goers DID vote Republican, and those with a staunch view on abortion voted Republican as well.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Congress
I found it surprising how much sway minority parties have in Congress. As explained in Hetherington and Keefe, the role of these minority parties is to "mobilize congressional majorities and shape public policy." When I first heard about the Democratic takeover of the House in 2006, I was excited to hear what changes they'd enact after 12 years of Republican rule. When I failed to see any real action, I wondered why. Was it because the House couldn't come up with groundbreaking new legislature? Was there no media coverage of their decisions? Or did President Bush have something to do with it?
Now, while I don't understand the whole process completely, I think that the fact that Democrats didn't have that wide of a majority over the Republicans made a huge difference. The Republicans were still able to filibuster or in other ways block the House from passing Democratic-backed bills. And even though Democrats hold the majority, not every Democrat will vote with his party 100% of the time. The vote of the moderates can make or break a bill.
As explained in the class video, when a bill is presented to five people on varying places in the political spectrum, it will usually appeal to 2 of those people and not appeal to the other 2 on the opposite side. The majority vote, then, goes to the person square in the middle. The moderate. If he agrees with parts of the bill, it will pass. If he mostly disagrees with it, it will fail. It seems that moderates play a vital role as tiebreaker for the House. The Richert article, "Moderates Come Front and Center,"describes a specific scenario in which the moderates decided the fate of a certain bill. "In 1994, Clinton bet much of his political capital on being able to sell his health care initiative to a solidly Democratic Congress, completely misunderstanding how many moderates in his own party hated his ideas and were willing to join with virtually everyone on the Republican side to bury his ambitions." Certainly, the minorities play a huge role in determining the effectiveness of legislature negotiations.
As for the bailout bill that flew through the Senate but failed in the House, I found a number of explanations for the result. First of all, congressmen seemed reluctant to vote for a bill so unpopular with their districts. During a reelection year, congressmen generally will not vote for a bill that will doom their campaigns in the future. And since the term limit for congressmen is two years versus Senators' six, the Senators had less to lose by passing the bill.
There was also the question of partisanship related to this bill. Right after the bill failed, Minority Leader John Boehner blamed Nancy Pelosi's speech, right before the voting began, for the failing of the bill. He stated, "I do believe we would have gotten there had the Speaker not made this partisan speech on the floor of the house." Whether or not that speech actually made that big of a difference is unknown, but it was amusing to hear Rep. Barney Frank's opinion of Boehner's comment. "We don't believe they had the votes and I think they are covering up the embarrassment of not having the votes. But think about this: somebody hurt my feelings so I will punish the country. I mean that's hardly plausible. And there were twelve Republicans who were ready to stand up for the economic interest of America but not if anybody insulted them. I'll make an offer: Give me those twelve people's names and I will go talk uncharacteristically nicely to them and tell them what wonderful people they are, and maybe they'll now think about the country."
Now, while I don't understand the whole process completely, I think that the fact that Democrats didn't have that wide of a majority over the Republicans made a huge difference. The Republicans were still able to filibuster or in other ways block the House from passing Democratic-backed bills. And even though Democrats hold the majority, not every Democrat will vote with his party 100% of the time. The vote of the moderates can make or break a bill.
As explained in the class video, when a bill is presented to five people on varying places in the political spectrum, it will usually appeal to 2 of those people and not appeal to the other 2 on the opposite side. The majority vote, then, goes to the person square in the middle. The moderate. If he agrees with parts of the bill, it will pass. If he mostly disagrees with it, it will fail. It seems that moderates play a vital role as tiebreaker for the House. The Richert article, "Moderates Come Front and Center,"describes a specific scenario in which the moderates decided the fate of a certain bill. "In 1994, Clinton bet much of his political capital on being able to sell his health care initiative to a solidly Democratic Congress, completely misunderstanding how many moderates in his own party hated his ideas and were willing to join with virtually everyone on the Republican side to bury his ambitions." Certainly, the minorities play a huge role in determining the effectiveness of legislature negotiations.
As for the bailout bill that flew through the Senate but failed in the House, I found a number of explanations for the result. First of all, congressmen seemed reluctant to vote for a bill so unpopular with their districts. During a reelection year, congressmen generally will not vote for a bill that will doom their campaigns in the future. And since the term limit for congressmen is two years versus Senators' six, the Senators had less to lose by passing the bill.
There was also the question of partisanship related to this bill. Right after the bill failed, Minority Leader John Boehner blamed Nancy Pelosi's speech, right before the voting began, for the failing of the bill. He stated, "I do believe we would have gotten there had the Speaker not made this partisan speech on the floor of the house." Whether or not that speech actually made that big of a difference is unknown, but it was amusing to hear Rep. Barney Frank's opinion of Boehner's comment. "We don't believe they had the votes and I think they are covering up the embarrassment of not having the votes. But think about this: somebody hurt my feelings so I will punish the country. I mean that's hardly plausible. And there were twelve Republicans who were ready to stand up for the economic interest of America but not if anybody insulted them. I'll make an offer: Give me those twelve people's names and I will go talk uncharacteristically nicely to them and tell them what wonderful people they are, and maybe they'll now think about the country."
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Campaigns & Elections II
In this year's campaign, both candidates are focusing their platforms on change, and in the simplest terms possible, both platforms seem to center on change from the current administration. John McCain's aim is to set himself apart from typical Republicans through his "maverick" title and his choice of maverick Sarah Palin as his running mate. He strives to accentuate the differences between himself and the current president, citing how often he has voted against Bush or stood up to his own party. Barack Obama is running his campaign on change -- not just from a Democrat standpoint, but from a seemingly ideological standpoint as well. His speeches don't declare that the Democratic party will bring about change, but that he will. In this respect, neither candidate seems like an agent for his party; both seem pretty intent on keeping their respective parties out of their campaigns.
In terms of the impact of technological advances on the presidential race, I think that the ability of candidates to separate themselves from their parties becomes much easier. With the ability to create web sites, post videos, reach out to social networking sites, and contact millions of people through a simple listserv, candidates don't need to rely on their parties to spread the word. Candidates are able to promote themselves any way they'd like for very little cost.
After studying both candidate's web sites, I've observed that both adhere very closely to Teachout's recommendations.
1.) Meeting tool
Both web sites offer visitors the opportunity to search for events in their areas. By typing in their zip code, and the max miles they're willing to travel, they're offered pages worth of debate watching parties, phone-bank volunteerism, or even pot-luck dinners. The meeting tools, in both cases, are offered right on the front page of each site.
However, it seems as though Obama's site offers more in terms of meeting venues and making arrangements. Obama's site offers visitors the change to make their own web page to connect with people in their area.
2.) Listserv
Again, both web sites encourage visitors to enter their email addresses to get on their candidate's listserv. However, Obama once again one-ups McCain's site by offering a listserv via text messages as well as email.
3.) Blogs
Yes, both sites also have blogs! Both blogs appear to be updated on a daily basis -- sometimes several times a day. Both seem to have a primary contributer (Matt Lira for John McCain and Amanda Scott for Barack Obama), and both utilize photos, links, and videos in their entries. The only real difference here is that Obama's site features the blog on the home page while McCain's is only accessible via a link.
In terms of the impact of technological advances on the presidential race, I think that the ability of candidates to separate themselves from their parties becomes much easier. With the ability to create web sites, post videos, reach out to social networking sites, and contact millions of people through a simple listserv, candidates don't need to rely on their parties to spread the word. Candidates are able to promote themselves any way they'd like for very little cost.
After studying both candidate's web sites, I've observed that both adhere very closely to Teachout's recommendations.
1.) Meeting tool
Both web sites offer visitors the opportunity to search for events in their areas. By typing in their zip code, and the max miles they're willing to travel, they're offered pages worth of debate watching parties, phone-bank volunteerism, or even pot-luck dinners. The meeting tools, in both cases, are offered right on the front page of each site.
However, it seems as though Obama's site offers more in terms of meeting venues and making arrangements. Obama's site offers visitors the change to make their own web page to connect with people in their area.
2.) Listserv
Again, both web sites encourage visitors to enter their email addresses to get on their candidate's listserv. However, Obama once again one-ups McCain's site by offering a listserv via text messages as well as email.
3.) Blogs
Yes, both sites also have blogs! Both blogs appear to be updated on a daily basis -- sometimes several times a day. Both seem to have a primary contributer (Matt Lira for John McCain and Amanda Scott for Barack Obama), and both utilize photos, links, and videos in their entries. The only real difference here is that Obama's site features the blog on the home page while McCain's is only accessible via a link.
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